Blagojevich: Pay to Play Politics. What’s Next for Him?

December 12, 2008

Article at CNN: Illinois Democratic Lawmakers begin impeachment effort for gov

Obviously this is a huge news story just about anywhere in the US, but living just about 60 miles from downtown Chicago the news, the uproar, is almost overwhelming. Understandably so, the focus is on Chicago “pay-to-play” politics. Chicago has a long lineage of dirty politicians and unfortunately some good politicians get wrapped up in the fray, and might do so this time. Now, I’m am not implying Blagojevich is a good guy or even a good politician. On the contrary, his record speaks for itself - he has a 13% approval rating in the State of Illinois, the lowest of any governor to hold the seat. That’s not good considering the proceeding governor, George Ryan, is currently serving time for lying to investigators for taking cash and gifts while serving as governor.

Which begs the question, “How fucking stupid is this guy?” That is, if he is guilty of a crime. Based upon the fact the Feds have arrested him and will likely charge Blagojevich within the next thirty days, one can only assume the Feds have a pretty good case. You don’t just arrest and ultimately charge a governor of a state unless you have airtight facts to back you up.

This is what I think will happen…

Within the next month or so, the Feds will charge Blagojevich with using his position for the purpose of financial gain. Then, over the next few months, maybe even sooner, Blagojevich lawyers will work with the Feds to come up with a plea deal. The deal will include, perhaps, a minimal amount of financial restitution - considering it does not seem like he had actually taking any money on the attempt to sell Obama’s senate seat. However, all of this; investigation, bringing him up on charges,  bargaining back and forth for a plea deal, it all costs money and my guess is they will have Blagojevich pony up some dough to offset costs - not to mention what he will have to pay to cover his lawyers.

Additionally, Blagojevich will resign his governorship. However, he will not do this until he has a plea deal - he would be stupid to do so, as then he would not have the governors seat as leverage in the plea deal. All of the political players calling for his resignation right now is just a show, a way for Dems to distance themselves from the new pariah, that is Blagojevich. Regardless of whether he is guilty or innocent of the crime, the status quo has already convicted him - as is the case with our system in general. You see, people are actually guilty until they prove themselves innocent. I imply of such in my prior paragraph.

Anyhow, Blagojevich will remain governor until he gets a good plea deal, which may amount to a small amount of prison time and restitition of some sort. He has two years remaining on his governorship, so I have to image this may get stringed out for the next year or so, but beyond that Blagojevich will need to make a deal so he can leverage his position.